Spanish economist Santiago Niño Becerra has warned that Spain cannot afford to build 750,000 homes to solve its national housing shortfall.
Writing on the social media platform X, the economist questioned whether the country could fund the deficit calculated by the Bank of Spain in one single push, arguing that public authorities should look at empty flats instead.
Niño Becerra took as his starting point an estimate published on Friday and commissioned by the Spanish newspaper El País from a real estate consultancy. The study calculated that building 750,000 homes would cost between 189.68 billion and 236 billion euros, depending on which concepts are included.
That projected bill equals between 11.2 percent and 14 percent of Spain's gross domestic product for 2025. Niño Becerra argued that Spain has other spending commitments and, in his view, cannot allocate such a massive sum to residential construction.
The economist also asked whether future buyers would actually be able to pay the price of those properties once built. The estimated figures do not represent an approved public budget or a single bill that the state must settle at once.
Estimated cost of new construction
The Bank of Spain calculated an accumulated shortfall of nearly 750,000 homes between 2021 and 2025 by comparing newly formed households with completed dwellings over that period. The central bank definition measures the mathematical difference between family units created and finished properties, rather than a count of homeless people.
Other economists have also debated the true scale of the housing gap across Spain. The central bank figures do not indicate that all 750,000 properties need to be built in the same place, though Niño Becerra highlighted that pressure remains particularly acute in large cities.
The question of property prices forms another central part of the economist's argument. Niño Becerra questioned whether ordinary families could afford to live in the new houses even if they were built, noting that the volume of properties needed and their ultimate affordability are two separate challenges that do not necessarily move at the same speed.
Annual shortfall in high demand areas
Niño Becerra warned that the housing deficit will not stand still while construction work takes place. The consultancy estimate cited by the economist adds that Spain could face a further shortfall of approximately 150,000 homes each year if the gap between new households and available properties persists in the areas of highest demand.
That annual deficit is a projection of future housing needs, separate from the 750,000 homes already accumulated in the calculation by the Bank of Spain. Niño Becerra stressed the practical difficulty of resolving the shortage purely with money, pointing to the substantial amount of time required to construct so many properties from the ground up.
The economist argued that the housing problem has been allowed to expand for decades, placing the responsibility on successive Spanish governments of different political parties. While that assessment reflects his personal judgment, his immediate focus rests on the financial and physical barriers to building hundreds of thousands of new homes today.
Alternative measures and empty properties
Rather than relying solely on building new developments from scratch, Niño Becerra proposed examining unoccupied properties, cracking down on tax fraud, and increasing overall spending on housing. He urged authorities to combine public investment with practical measures directed at properties that currently sit vacant.
The reality of empty homes varies substantially depending on where they are situated and why they remain closed. Niño Becerra acknowledged that having an unoccupied property does not automatically mean that it is habitable, located in an area with genuine demand, or capable of being offered to tenants at an affordable price.
The economist did not include an estimate in his social media thread of how many empty flats could actually be brought into service, nor did he calculate the funds that could be recovered through anti-fraud measures. His suggestions serve as broad strategic lines of action rather than a fully budgeted alternative program.
Pessimistic outlook for housing affordability
Niño Becerra offered a pessimistic forecast for the coming years, stating that he believes Spain will continue to drag an acute shortage of affordable housing in the near term. The imbalance between living costs, wage levels, and housing supply continues to weigh heavily on prospective buyers and renters.
Despite that gloomy assessment, the economist maintained that the crisis can be resolved if political leaders take coordinated decisions across multiple fronts at the same time. His published comments did not set out a specific timetable for action, nor did they quantify the exact contribution each proposed measure would deliver.
