Former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said the April 2027 French presidential election will largely determine the future of the European Union. Speaking on a new episode of Klimkin Explains for LIGA.net, Klimkin stated that France will enter an active campaign phase at the start of the new political season in autumn 2026.
Klimkin explained that Paris plays a key role in shaping the modern EU, noting that the bloc is largely modeled on the efforts and intellectual work of France. He added that Paris remains a major decision-making center in the union.
According to Klimkin, the upcoming political season in Europe will bring challenges that are currently hard to predict. He said observers will 100 percent see crises during the new season, adding that the year is unique because there is no real summer break.
Constitutional limits and election candidates
French presidential elections are scheduled for spring 2027, with the first round expected in April. If no candidate wins an absolute majority, a second round will take place two weeks later. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron cannot run for a third consecutive term due to restrictions set by the Constitution of France.
Current opinion polls show representatives of the right-wing populist National Rally among the favorites for the election. The party's leading figures include Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.
Impact on Ukraine and European security
Klimkin stated that a change in political direction after the election could directly affect Ukraine. He noted that potential shifts could influence military and financial support, sanctions against Russia, European security policy, and Ukraine's progress toward EU membership.
French analyst Cécile Maisonneuve said a victory for Marine Le Pen would lead France to reduce military support for Ukraine. She said Paris would bet on rapid negotiations with Russia rather than strengthening Kyiv's position on the battlefield.
French analyst Sébastien Maillard said a victory for far-right leader Marine Le Pen would be a disaster for Ukraine and a gift for Putin. Volodymyr Yermolenko, a doctor of political science at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences in Paris, said a possible Le Pen victory poses a greater risk to Ukraine than the policies of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
